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The Reform UK leader depicts his Reform UK party as a unique phenomenon that has burst on to the world stage, its rapid ascent an remarkable historic moment. However this week, in every one of Europe’s leading countries and from India and Thailand to the US and South America, hard-right, anti-immigrant, anti-globalization parties similar to his are also ahead in the public surveys.

In last Saturday’s Czech elections, the conservative, pro-Putin populist a prominent figure overthrew the head of government Petr Fiala. National Rally, which has just forced the resignation of yet another France's leader, is leading the polls for both the presidential race and the legislature. In Germany, the right-wing AfD party is currently the most popular party. A Hungarian political force, Robert Fico’s pro-Russian Slovakian coalition and the Italian political group are already in government, while the Freedom party of Austria (FPÖ), the Netherlands’ Freedom party (PVV) and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang – all hardline nationalists – are part of an global alliance of opponents of global cooperation, motivated by right-wing influencers like Steve Bannon, seeking to overthrow the international rule of law, diminish fundamental freedoms and undermine international collaboration.

Rise of Populist Nationalism

The populist nationalist surge exposes a recent undeniable reality that supporters of democracy overlook at great risk: an nationalist ideology – once thought toppled with the historic barrier – has replaced economic liberalism as the dominant ideology of our age, giving us a world of priorities: “America first”, “Indian focus”, “China first”, “Russian primacy”, “my tribe first” and often “my tribe first and only” regimes. It is this nationalist sentiment that helps explain why the world is now composed of 91 autocracies and only 88 democracies, and ethnic nationalism is the driver behind the breaches of international human rights law not just by one nation in conflict but in almost every instance of global strife.

Understanding the Underlying Forces

Crucial to grasp the root causes, common to almost every country, that have driven this recent nationalist era. It begins with a widely felt sense that a globalisation that was open but not inclusive has been a unregulated system that has not been fair to all.

For more than a decade, leaders have not only been delayed in addressing to the millions who feel excluded and marginalized, but also to the shifting dynamics of global economic power, transitioning from a US-dominated era once dominated by the United States to a multipolar world of rival major nations, and from a system of international law to a might-makes-right approach. The ethnic nationalism that this has provoked means free trade is being replaced by trade barriers. Where market forces used to drive government policies, the politics of nationalism is now driving economic decisions, and already over a hundred nations are running mercantilist policies characterized by reshoring and friend-shoring and by bans on cross-border trade, foreign funding and knowledge sharing, sinking international cooperation to its lowest ebb since the post-war period.

Optimism in Public Opinion

But all is not lost. The situation is not fixed, and even as it hardens we can find hope in the common sense of the global public. In a recent survey for a prominent organization, of thousands of individuals in 34 countries we find a clear majority are more resistant to an exclusionary nationalism and more willing to embrace international cooperation than many of the leaders who rule over them.

Across the world there is, perhaps surprisingly, only a limited number of hardened anti-internationalists representing a minority of the world's people (even if 25% in the United States currently) who either feel peaceful living between diverse communities is unattainable or have a win-lose perspective that if they or their nation do well, it has to be at the cost of others doing badly.

However there are another 21% at the opposite extreme, whom we might call dedicated globalists, who either still see cooperation across borders through open trade as a mutually beneficial arrangement, or are what an influential thinker calls “rooted cosmopolitans”.

The Global Majority's Stance

Most people of the world's citizens are somewhere in between: not isolated patriots, as “America first” ideology would suggest, or all-in cosmopolitans. They are devoted to their country but don’t see the world as in a never-ending struggle between the “us” and the “others”, adversaries permanently set apart from each other in an irreconcilable gap.

Do the majority in the middle favor a obligation-light or a responsible global community? Are they prepared to accept obligations beyond their local area or community boundaries? Yes, under specific circumstances. A first group, 22%, will support humanitarian action to relieve suffering and are prepared to act out of altruism, supporting disaster relief for affected areas. Those we might call “good cause” multilateralists empathize of others and believe in something bigger than themselves.

Another segment comprising 22% are pragmatic multilateralists who want to know that any public funds for global progress are used effectively. And there is a third group, roughly a fifth, self-interested multilateralists, who will approve cooperation if they can see that it advantages them and their local areas, whether it be through guaranteeing them basic necessities or peace and security.

Forging a Collaborative Consensus

So a definite majority can be built not just for emergency assistance if funds are used wisely but also for global action to deal with worldwide issues, like climate crisis and pandemic prevention, as long as this case is argued on grounds of enlightened self-interest, and if we emphasize the reciprocal benefits that benefit them and their own country. And thus for those who have long wondered whether we work together from necessity or if we have a need to cooperate, the response is both.

This willingness to cooperate across borders shows how we can turn back the anti-foreigner sentiment: we can overcome current pessimistic, isolated and often aggressive and authoritarian nationalism that vilifies immigrants, outsiders and “different groups” as long as we champion a positive, globally engaged and welcoming patriotism that addresses people’s need for community and resonates with their everyday worries.

Tackling Key Issues

And while detailed surveys tell us that across the west, illegal immigration is currently the top concern – and no one should doubt that it must promptly be managed effectively – the public sentiment data also tell us that the people are even more concerned about what is happening in their personal circumstances and within their immediate neighborhoods. Last month, a prominent leader spoke movingly about how what’s positive in the nation can overcome what’s bad, doing so precisely because in most western countries, “dysfunctional” and “deteriorating” are the words people have for years most frequently used when asked about both our economy and community.

However, as the leader also reminded us, the far right is more interested in exploiting grievances than ending them. Nigel Farage praised a ill-fated economic plan as “the best Conservative budget” since the 1980s. But he would also enact a similar plan – what was intended – the biggest ever cuts in government programs. Reform’s plan to reduce public spending by a huge sum would not repair struggling areas but damage them, turn citizen against citizen and wreck any sense of unity. Under a hard-right regime, you will not be able to afford to be ill, impaired, poor or vulnerable. Continually from now on, and in every electoral district, the party should be asked which medical facility, which school and which government service will be the first to be cut or shut down.

The Stakes and the Alternative

“This ideology” is economic theory at its most cruel, more harmful even than monetarism, and vindictive far beyond fiscal restraint. What the public are indicating all over the Western world is that they want their leaders to restore our financial systems and our communities. “The party” and its international partners should be revealed day after day for plans that would devastate both. And for those of us who believe our best days could be in the future, we can go beyond pointing out the party's contradictions by setting out a argument for a improved nation that appeals not just to visionaries, but to realists, to personal benefit, and to the daily kindness of the British people.